The Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) Loop
“Agility…execute your OODA loop more quickly than your adversary” - USAF Colonel John Boyd
In a nutshell…
USAF Colonel John Boyd’s O-O-D-A loop describes how an individual or even an organization uses time for competitive advantage. By executing your O-O-D-A loop more quickly than your adversary you use time as a shaping and exploiting mechanism. Loop speed depends on culture/organizational climate.
At WSA we believe Colonel Boyd’s theories broadens agility and removes a self imposed limitation that agile only about light weight software practices. Agile is a strategy for winning.
It’s About Time!
Imagine two fighter pilots locked in a dog fight, each pilot scanning the skies, observing the other. As the pilots observe each other they draw on their training and experience to construct and revise their mental models of the situation attempting to orient themselves to the unfolding events. The pilots act without thinking, decision and action flow through from their orientation. Each pilot works to gain a position of advantage with quick maneuvers attempting to disorientate the other. Surprise! Suddenly the opponent appears where he was not expected, a flash, and one pilot flies away victorious. This melodramatic scenario captures the four elements of the O-O-D-A loop (or simply the OODA loop), Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act. Figure 1 is a simplified caricature of the OODA loop (simplified to the point that some would even say dumbed down):
We observe the world and construct our mental model or orientation of the world. Based on our orientation we decide on a course of action and follow through by acting on it. Our actions change the state of the world and the cycle repeats. If our orientation becomes corrupt because of faulty observation or our orientation is biased, then decisions are made with an orientation that does reflect reality. Our adversary is able to outmaneuver us. In conflict agility - the ability to execute the OODA loop faster than your adversary - is an essential trait for winning. To win, we need to know which factors slow our loop down or speed it up. This is the essence of our consulting practice.
So what does conflict and maneuver warfare have to do with software development? Thankfully not much other than providing a model for not only surviving, but also succeeding in a chaotic environment of rapid change. To quote Boyd researcher Dr. Chet Richards
“I am not saying that the specific tactics of maneuver warfare – or any other form of warfare – apply to business. However, I am claiming that Boyd’s underlying strategy – the use of time as a shaping and exploiting mechanism and the emphasis on a culture/organizational climate that makes this possible – apply equally well to both”
Fair enough, but who is our adversary? Who are we competing against? In the world of software projects, change, risk and uncertainty can derail a good project as effectively as an explicit adversary. Tom Gilb is famous for his quote:
“If you do not actively attack the risks on your project, they will actively attack you”
If we choose to turn our back on reality, then change, risk and uncertainty can have the same confusing and demoralizing affect as an explicit adversary. What the agile movement has done for us is to emphasize and demonstrate the importance of quick feedback for avoiding surprises. Where the agile movement has failed is an over emphasis on specific light weight practices regardless of project context and look to agility as means to itself. Put another way, when your job is to haul 30 tons of potatoes to market, no matter how agile a Ferrari is, it’s not going to help you win.
In his master work “A Discourse on Winning and Losing” United States Air Force Colonel John Boyd introduced the OODA loop as a model for winning in a chaotic changing environment. The OODA loop is not so much agility as promoted by the agile software community with its focus on light-weight software practices – rather, its focus is on quick and effective decision making. It is about flexibility, adapting, and evolving. It is about winning in a chaotic and changing environment. Agility is not a means to itself. Notice Boyd did not call his master work “A Discourse on Agility”.
Why does this model of agility appeal to us at WSA? Because it provides us with a conceptual framework that is much broader and actionable than the declarations of the agile manifesto. It removes size from the equation. Big projects, small projects, complex safety critical projects, all projects can be agile. The OODA loops moves the conversation from discussions about specific tools and lightweight practices to discovering what it takes for a software development organization to win.